I found this today.
It's not what someone wants to read in this economy, but then it's like when you're gonna sell your house, and the agent tells you the price you're thinking is too high, and shows you some professional reality. That's what I think this is. An educated persons view of what may or may not be an accurate prediction, but one that one should be ready for.
Like most historic bubbles, the financial bubble that burst last fall was severe. What the data presented in these graphs suggests is that financial bubble (unlike tech bubbles, or energy bubbles) lead to greater systemic damage. Not sure why. Perhaps it's because finance, as a linchpin of an economy is not a matter of making good stuff, or the next big thing. It's a function of getting capital into the hands of people so they can deliver the next big thing. When finance pops, all the money that was going to entrepreneurs disappears for awhile because the trust that allows market mechanisms to function is gone. Finance is based on trust. Trust that the bond, or note, or any other financial instrument being bought is worth at least what you're saying it is. Cleaning the toxic assets that inhibit that systemic trust from returning is really what will drive, or hold back the recovery.
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